Well, here we are. Election night. Tomorrow, or for you readers (both of you), today, could go either way I suppose. Biden could win in an obvious fashion and we could be partying our asses off that the Trump era is over. Then again, Trump could squeak or cheat another one by, and we wind up either miserable, or resolute that it’s time to leave the U.S. before it’s too late. There are those that would advise not to write a positive piece at this point. After all, I might “jinx” the election! It seems unlikely though, with a record number of early votes already turned in, and perhaps millions floating around in the U.S. Mail, I somehow think the toothpaste is out of the tube already. Yes, there may be an equally impressive turnout on Election Day, and perhaps we won’t know right away who the true winner is. That doesn’t mean that all writers should be cowering in fear, too worried about bad omens to write something positive and uplifting while we still can. Once the results are counted, we have our answer, good or bad. It’s only before the election is officially over that we can capture this moment in time in which we don’t know, but we think we have an idea of what’s about to happen. This is, for me right now, a Schrödinger’s Cat of articles. If I were to predict a Biden win right now, I could be right, with plenty of evidence to suggest that this is no big feat of psychic projection, or I could be horribly wrong, this entire article ultimately serving as a big “I told you so” to myself for ever engaging in that four-letter word known as “hope”.
So, if not now, when? If Trump and his Republican friends somehow steal, or simply take over and make pointless, the election, or God forbid, actually win fairly… I’ll be depressed for another four years, or more and I’ll have no record for one of the few times I could still think positively. So here goes: I think Biden’s going to win, and win big! There I said it. It’s crazy to wish I know, but where we stand here is that the numbers are in our favor. Yes, 2016 seemed that way too. Donald Trump wasn’t going to become President, that was ludicrous… and then it happened. But let’s remind ourselves just how much it’s not 2016 anymore. Trump is no longer a candidate coming out of the business world as an alternative to the standard politicians who’ve gotten it so wrong, for so long. Trump is now the incumbent, the standard bearer of the last four years, in which families and friendships broke apart over political battles, often about Trump and whether or not the latest news story is proof that he’s mentally deranged and completely lacking in empathy or decency. For Trump, the mystery is gone. You’re either a fan of his non-traditionalness, willing to accept anything he does an example of not being predictable (which is… good?), or you hate him, viewing him as a pathological liar, and uncontrollable narcissist who will side with anybody who’s willing to throw him some undeserved praise. He’s now the establishment, perhaps the establishment candidate that establishment-haters vote for, but still, he represents the status quo. Biden is not Hilary Clinton, and he represents change, even though he is tempered with experience. Trump tells us there will be no more God if Biden is elected. No Christmas, no suburbs, no a lot of things that don’t make any sense, particularly since Biden was an influential Vice President for eight years and none of that stuff was ever in any danger.
With what’s on the line, how can you be positive, you might be asking. Let’s actually pay attention to the polls, okay? The fear people have is that we believed the polls in 2016, and they were wrong. Not quite. The final polling the day before the 2016 election had Hillary Clinton up by 3 points. She would go on to receive nearly 3 million more votes than Trump, winning the popular vote by 2.1 percent nationally. The polls really weren’t that far off. It’s just that that damn electoral college can really shift things around and needs to be accounted for. So let’s look, skeptically of course, at today’s polls. By many counts, Biden is up by 8 points, as much as 10 or 11 in some of the most positive leaning ones. That’s far better than what was predicted for Hillary at this point. Add to that that pollsters are more aware than ever of the electoral college and are providing more state information as well. Trump won by a tiny margin in three key states: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. An average of 7 polls has Biden up in Michigan by 5.4%. Pennsylvania: 3.7%. Wisconsin: in an average of 5 polls – Biden +9.2%. (all averages taken from the website 270towin.com.) The Demographics speak loudly in Joe’s favor as well. Trump is losing key groups in the elderly in general and suburban women. Two pretty massive groups that helped push him just over the edge last time. Thanks to the epic Coronavirus mismanagement, seniors realize that Trump isn’t looking out for them. And his general misogynistic behavior has been on display for the last 4 or more years to turn off all kinds of women. Trump was losing voters before Covid-19 was even a thing. Many voters who thought having a businessman run America like a business might work, just because it was different, soon became disillusioned with the experiment. Trump is crass, he’s alienated our foes and kissed the asses of dictators and fascists. His Trade Wars were a disaster for Farmers, the volatile turnover of his staff was telling to at least some, and oh yeah, he was impeached.
Still, Trump has his fans. Just the fact of lowering taxes seems to get a lot of people excited, even if it was a poorly concealed scam to make the rich richer and the not-so-rich…. not-so-much richer. And don’t forget the judges. The courts all over America are now packed with conservative judges, whose decisions will affect this country for years after Donald Trump is dead and buried, or lit on fire, or tossed on the world’s most disgusting compost heap. The fear of what the now right-leaning Supreme Court is palpable and certainly an issue not to be under estimated. Still, the cases have to get to the court, and a Democratic President may just make some changes he’s not discussing right now to make things a little more even. Could happen.
The point is that we don’t have to be afraid to keep our hopes up. The numbers speak for Biden. Trump’s approval rating has never surged above 50%, and they’re well below that now. Biden’s been ahead in an average of all polls since before he officially announced he was running. There has been no October surprise like in 2016 when Comey kind of sort of “re-opened” the investigation on Hillary’s emails. Covid is still quite present, and is making standing on long lines for hours among strangers in winter even less appealing than it sounds normally. The stock market even has indicators that favor a Biden win, with the S & P 500 officially posting a (slight) loss over the quarter that ended on October 31. And let’s not forget that there are a significant number of Republicans who have made it clear that Trump is not the horse to back this year. To name just a few who have announced their support of Biden: Colin Powell, Cindy McCain, John Kasich, Christine Todd Whitman, Meg Whitman, Carly Fiorina, former RNC chair Michael Steele, and The Lincoln Project is a whole bunch of Republicans who are not only pushing for Biden, but recommending turning the Senate blue, to get rid of everyone who made Trump possible. It all adds up to a Biden win, and maybe more, and if that somehow doesn’t happen, we either have a serious problem with our polling methods, or the Republicans have out-and-out falsified an election. This is not the same as Trump claiming that “the only way we lose is if it’s rigged”. It’s essentially the same words, but we have actual reasons behind saying it, and all “jinx” talk aside, it’s probably better if we document those reasons now and explain why we had every reason to believe our guy would win, then to downplay everything and have no argument if he doesn’t.